Prediction (public)
until lock
Guessing is closed. Lecture in progress.
Four Million Blazers
The blazer futures market for first-year Macro.
The blazer futures market for first-year Macro.
in
Tap a revealed date to view the round.
| Rank · name | Points | Played | Mean ΔE | Crowns |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · |
| Name | Color | ΔE | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| TRUTH | — | — | |
A long time ago, in a classroom nearby...
1. Predict the blazer. Before each lecture, choose the color you think Xavier will wear. Predictions are public.
2. Vote on what he wore. Once the lecture begins, choose the color you actually see. Voting is blind: you can see your own vote, but nobody else’s.
3. See the result. After voting closes, the group’s votes determine the official color.
4. Score points. The closer your prediction was to the official color, the more points you earn. Points add up across the term.
All times are New York time. For a Monday lecture, predictions open the previous Wednesday at 13:00 and lock Monday at 11:00. Voting runs Monday from 11:40 to 15:00.
For a Wednesday lecture, predictions open Monday at 13:00 and lock Wednesday at 11:00. Voting runs Wednesday from 11:40 to 15:00.
You may change your prediction or vote until its deadline.
At least three votes are required. If more than half of all votes say Zebra, the result is Zebra. Otherwise, Zebra votes are set aside and at least three color votes are required. The official color is the central consensus of those color votes.
If there are not enough eligible votes, the round is void and nobody scores.
An exact color prediction earns 100 points. Predictions earn fewer points as they get farther from the official color: points = round(100 × exp(−d / 15)), where d is the perceptual distance between the two colors.
Zebra predicted and Zebra worn earns 100 points. Zebra against a color earns zero. No prediction earns zero and does not count as played.
The Mansa Musa crown goes to the best prediction in each round. If rounded scores tie, the closer prediction wins; an exact tie shares the crown.
The leaderboard ranks players by total points, then Mansa Musa crowns, then lower average color distance. If all three are equal, the players share the same rank.